How to Keep Moving Forward

March 7th, 2012
In these days of high market volatility and low interest rates, how can you keep moving forward instead of falling behind? 

How to Keep Moving Forward
The combination of high stock market volatility and historic low interest rates has made it difficult for investors to get ahead. Yet the prices for goods and services are continually creeping higher (now often hidden by smaller packaging for the same price as before). So how can we create some momentum in our favor?

As I continue to study the investment landscape, talk with fellow advisors, and work with clients, I’ve concluded that there are a few core convictions we need to hold in order to keep moving forward. They are basic, but worth reviewing.

1. Speculating is too risky, so don’t do it. I’m not interested in speculating with my own or my clients’ money. The greater fool theory of buying high and hoping some greater fool will pay even more is speculation, not investing. Mark Twain said there are two occasions when you should not speculate– when you can afford to lose it, and when you cannot afford to lose it. That’s never. Markets are driven by buys and sells made by people who are sometimes irrational, but the underlying value of an investment should always be researched carefully, matching the investment with the needs of the investor. For more on this, I recommend Seth Klarman’s book Margin of Safety. He contends that investments have intrinsic value that can throw off cash. Speculative commodities depend solely on supply and demand, fear and greed (the greater fool theory).

2. Financial planning is crucial, so do it immediately and then regularly. A detailed written financial plan quantifies future needs. The math doesn’t lie. With some conservative assumptions, a person can get a good feel for what retirement cash flow will look like. This tethering of one’s expectations to reality can inform and motivate a person to make course corrections early enough to make a difference. Medical and hygiene advances have helped us live longer, but along with that extended longevity has come a greater strain on retirement nest-eggs. Even people who have been retired for several years need to consider how they will fund what may be a 20 to 30-year retirement, considering taxes and inflation. Successful investors review their plans regularly to make sure they are staying on track and make adjustments as needed. 

3. Investors need growth, so be wise but not fearful. Not many people can enjoy a plentiful retirement if their assets do not grow before and during their retirement years. Inflation is gradually chipping away at every saver’s purchasing power. Younger investors should be invested primarily in stock funds, which are more volatile, but over long periods have historically produced higher returns than most other investments. Older and more cautious investors need growth to outpace inflation but cannot handle extreme volatility. A diversified portfolio of stock funds with a value and dividend tilt, combined with laddered bonds held to maturity (versus bond funds which can lose money during periods of rising interest rates), is a very sound approach. For many people, a comfortable retirement can be enjoyed with a 5% annual rate of return, which is possible without significant volatility. Why take more risk than needed? On the other-hand, settling for 1 to 2% returns will not produce a comfortable retirement for most people, especially since the long-term historic inflation rate has averaged 3%. Over time, the fearful investor earning low returns either runs out of money or is so cash strapped he/she is forced to go back to work (often earning much less than before retirement), or just meagerly “gets by”. This is not living the dream. You’ve worked for your money all these years; the idea of retirement is to now let your money work for you. 

Echols Financial Services is an independent financial planning and investment company specializing in strategic financial coaching for retirement. Feel free to save, print, or forward this issue of Breakthrough to a friend.Please call me at 770-889-8887 if you have any questions or comments. I also offer a free consultation.

Sincerely,

First name signature
Travis Echols
Certified Senior Advisor

Registered Investment Advisor

P.S. If this issue was helpful, forward it to a friend.

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This email is for information only. It is not intended to be individual advice. Please consult a tax professional for tax advice and an attorney for legal advice.  For specific financial planning advice, please call 770-889-8887 and we can discuss your particular concerns and goals. Past returns are not a guarantee of future results. This email is my opinion as of the email date. It is subject to change as conditions change.

Achieve Financial Freedom

March 7th, 2012
What is financial freedom and what steps can you take to accelerate your progress toward it? 

Five Steps to Financial Freedom
One of my definitions of financial freedom is being able to enjoy a nice lifestyle without having to work for income and without being a financial burden to others. This is not to say you’re not working. It does not mean that you’re not working for income. It does mean that you’re not pressured to work a job you do not enjoy. You are free to do those things in life that may be more meaningful. It’s really a freedom of your time, which is the most precious resource.  Here are five steps to get you there.

1. Develop a plan based on your values, dreams, and priorities. Planning starts with asking yourself some core questions.

Why is it important that I get it right with my money?

Picturing myself 10, maybe 20, years from now, what am I doing? 

What do I love to do so much that I would do it if nobody paid me to do it?

What are the most important dangers, opportunities, and strengths that need to be addressed for me to realize financial freedom?

2. Face the Challenges. Living longer combined with inflation, rising health care costs, and reduced government and company benefits make the risk of running out of money or living in poverty the biggest threat to financial freedom. This is no time to put your head in the sand and assume all will turn out well. Foresight and strategic planning, will help you steer clear of the “perfect storm” that many retirees will face. 

3. Know the financial freedom formula. The financial freedom formula is as follows:

              passive income > living expenses

When passive income (income you do not have to work to receive, such as investment income, royalties, social security income, pension income, rental income, etc.) is equal to or greater than your living expenses, you’ve arrived. (This assumes that the income increases to compensate for the rising cost of living.)

There’s therefore two angles of attack: Raise your passive income and/or lower your living expenses. By focusing on this equation, many people are surprised to learn how soon they may be able to achieve financial freedom. For some, the answer is converting non-income producing assets into income-producing assets. Ultimately it is not necessarily about amassing a great net worth. It is about creating a sustainable cash flow to meet your expenses.

4. Know your financial freedom number. Your financial freedom number is your estimated retirement living expenses. There are two ways to calculate it. One way is to add up all your current expenses by category such as gifts, food, transportation, clothing, utilities, medical/health, personal, and recreation and then subtract the expenses which would not be there during retirement and add the new retirement expenses. An easier way is to back into your current expenses by taking your after-tax income, minus current savings, plus any current deficit, minus expenses that will not be incurred in retirement, plus any new retirement expenses.

5. Save, invest, and spend with retirement income in mind. By knowing your financial freedom number, you have set a target for yourself. For example, if your number is $4000/month, and your current inflation-adjusted income from retirement sources is $3000/month, you can focus on closing that $1000/month gap. This is where savings and investments can play a vital role. The bigger your retirement nest-egg, the higher your potential income stream in retirement. For example, for a 30-year retirement, a 50/50 stock bond portfolio has a high probability of generating an inflation-adjusted income over that period, using a 4% withdrawal rate. For example, a one million dollar retirement account invested 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds will most likely be able to produce $40,000/year, increasing 3% each year for 30 years without being depleted. By viewing your investments as income sources, you will pause and think before making that large purchase that depletes your capital, because you know it could reduce your income for the rest of your life. Or, by knowing your financial freedom number, you could feel the freedom to make that purchase, knowing that your financial freedom is not jeopardized. 

Echols Financial Services is an independent financial planning and investment company specializing in strategic financial coaching for retirement.

Feel free to save, print, or forward this issue of Breakthrough to a friend.Please call me at 770-889-8887 if you have any questions or comments. I also offer a free consultation.

Sincerely,

First name signature
Travis Echols
Certified Senior Advisor

Registered Investment Advisor

P.S. If this issue was helpful, forward it to a friend.

Forward this email to a Friend

Join Free Email List

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This email is for information only. It is not intended to be individual advice. Please consult a tax professional for tax advice and an attorney for legal advice.  For specific financial planning advice, please call 770-889-8887 and we can discuss your particular concerns and goals. Past returns are not a guarantee of future results. This email is my opinion as of the email date. It is subject to change as conditions change.

Planning in a Recession

March 7th, 2012
What financial planning actions should you take during a recession?

Five Actions to Take in a Recession
It appears that the United States may be in a recession. Certainly economic growth has slowed. Here are five financial planning actions you should consider?

 

1. Stay Calm. Fear and greed are the two emotions that can sabotage your financial future. By reviewing long-term historical data over past recessions, you can gain a clearer perspective of how markets have behaved. This knowledge can help you stay calm and overcome fear.Let’s look at what the market has done over the last 10 recessions. According to Ned Davis Research (January 14, 2008) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), during the last 10 recessions since 1945, the S&P 500 (a 100% US, mostly large-cap, stock index) anticipated the slowdown and started to decline, continuing to decline over the next five to six months, and then recovering in anticipation of the recession’s end.  The recoveries have averaged 15.8% return three months after recession lows, 24.1% after 6 months, 32.2% after 9 months, and 32.4% after 12 months.Also, not all the current economic data is recessionary. Review Dr. James Paulsen’s April analysis at

https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/  research/investment/emp/emp_0408.pdf

2. Diversify. Invest in different asset classes (stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents) based on your time horizon and risk tolerance. Keeping the right balance is the most important investment decision you make. Invest the growth portion of your portfolio in different companies from different industries and countries. Maximize your return for the risk you’re taking, take advantage of market inefficiencies, (such as dividends, value, and small cap effect), and avoid chasing recent outperformance. See my Investment Philosophy for more information on diversifying your investments. 

3. Invest more. When stock prices dip, this is the time to buy. If you cannot buy, do not panic and abandon carefully laid plans and turn paper losses into actual losses. A good discipline is to dollar cost average into the market during good and bad times. If you invest the same dollar amount each month, you will be buying more shares when prices fall and fewer shares when prices rise. If you have a large lump sum to invest, and are concerned that we may only be in the 3rd versus 8th inning of this economic trouble, dollar cost average your lump sum into the market over the next several months until you reach your target allocation. Of course, stocks are appropriate only for long-term goals (five years or longer).

4. Harvest wisely. If you are retired and are harvesting your assets, be very strategic in how you withdraw your income from your nestegg–especially during down markets. Segment your investments in a way that will allow you to sell only low-volatility assets if needed in a market decline until equities rebound. If you have assets in taxable accounts, harvest in a tax-efficient order, taking full advantage of tax losses and long-term capital gains rates.

5. Get professional advice. A recession can be devastating for those who have not planned well. Great opportunities can also be missed. It is a good idea to surround yourself with competent, independent, professionals who are experts in areas in which you are not. By understanding  your goals, problems, and opportunities, they can help you apply creative solutions based on an objective analysis of your situation. Your investment in their advice will bring you greater simplicity, freedom, confidence, and dollars.

Echols Financial Services is an independent financial planning and investment company specializing in strategic financial coaching for retirement. Feel free to save, print, or forward this issue of Breakthrough to a friend.Please call me at 770-889-8887 if you have any questions or comments. I also offer a free consultation.

Sincerely,

First name signature
Travis Echols
Certified Senior Advisor

Registered Investment Advisor

P.S. If this issue was helpful, forward it to a friend.

Forward this email to a Friend

Join Free Email List

————————————————————————————————-

This email is for information only. It is not intended to be individual advice. Please consult a tax professional for tax advice and an attorney for legal advice.  For specific financial planning advice, please call 770-889-8887 and we can discuss your particular concerns and goals. Past returns are not a guarantee of future results. This email is my opinion as of the email date. It is subject to change as conditions change.

Two Words Your Grandchildren May Need from You

March 11th, 2008

This article, originally written in September 2005, is republished with minor editing.

“If I had known grandchildren were so great, I would have had them first,” goes the bumper sticker. Grandparents think their grandchildren are grand and grandchildren think their grandparents are grand. At least, that’s the way it should be. 

But how would you like for your grandchildren to think a little less of you? Only because of two words you omitted?  Would you want some of your grandchildren to end up with more of your assets after your death than the others? There could be reasons you would want that; but assuming that’s not the case, how could a careless error cause this?

I recently helped a grandmother who was vulnerable to this happening. Her primary beneficiaries were her children. On her insurance contract, if one of her children had died before her, when she died, the surviving children would receive the deceased child’s portion in equal shares. If, for example, a common accident had resulted in this situation, two of her grandchildren (the children of her predeceased child) would have received none of the insurance proceeds. All would have gone to her other children.

This is not what she wanted. The insurance company default was “per capita” instead of “per stirpes”. Her Last Will and Testament would have had no power over it. Insurance contracts, 401(k)s, and IRAs typically transfer directly to designated beneficiaries—not through probate. 

The Latin phrase “per stirpes”, meaning  “by branch” were the instructions the insurance company needed to correct the problem. Have you checked your will or trust lately? Have you checked your primary and contingent beneficiaries on your retirement plans and insurance policies?   Don’t tarnish a good legacy with confusion and disappointment. Leave a legacy of thoughtfulness regarding the distribution of your assets to your heirs.

Is Your Retirement Portfolio a Leisure Suit?

March 10th, 2008

This article, originally written in September 2005, is republished with minor editing.

The last time I remember seeing someone wearing a leisure suit was at the Wagon Wheel restaurant in Dahlonega, oh, probably ten years ago. It caught my attention because nobody else wore leisure suits at that time. They had been out of style for at least a decade. But this fellow didn’t care. He seemed to be perfectly happy.

In my business, I see some portfolios with out-of-style investments. People sport them around, just as happy as they can be.

For example, investors can get emotionally attached to an individual stock. They’re not holding it because of performance. Nor does it meet an objective investment criterion such as earnings growth, dividends, price momentum, or valuations—no, they keep holding it because it is already there.

Back to my analogy…They just keep wearing it because it’s in the closet and can’t stand the thought of dumping it. They keep sporting around this hideous, double knit, polyester, whatever…hoping that maybe, some day, it will become fashionable again.  

In the mean time, growth opportunities are passing them by while the countdown to retirement marches on. 

The fear of change paralyzes some investors in a time warp. Becoming comfortable with the status quo is often an investor’s worst enemy.     

So, here are some tips on investment fashion.   

  1. Sell off some of the highly valued assets while there are buyers paying the high prices. Technology and large company US growth stocks in years 1999 and 2000 had historically unsustainable returns and enormous valuations. Scaling back, at the least, was in order. This is a lesson we can use to our advantage. 
  2. Consider selling or exchanging expensive investments. For example, variable annuities with total annual expenses (M&E, management, and riders) as high as 2.5 to 3% are not worth the cost, in my opinion. There are often better alternatives.
  3. Diversify. Getting the right quantity and mix of stocks, bonds, cash, etc. is critical. Unless you know for certain where the next big upward move will be (and no one does), cast a wide net. Too much concentration in any stock, industry, or asset class is risky.
  4. Focus on performance. Every investor should know the historical returns and risk associated with his/her portfolio—not just the individual investments inside. Choose a method of money management that has demonstrated  strong, consistent, long-term results.

Does your portfolio need a makeover? Don’t you think it’s time to dump the leisure suit and slide into an Armani? You’ll feel much better about yourself. 

Four Steps to Avoid Poverty in Retirement

March 10th, 2008

This article, originally written in July 2005, is republished with minor editing. 

I do not like to use the words “poverty” and “retirement” in the same sentence. My business is about helping people enjoy a nice lifestyle in retirement without worrying about being short on money. But the new rules of retirement force us to confront this issue.

Government statistics reveal that 63% of people age 65 and older have annual incomes under $25,000.1

Government and employers guaranteeing retirees income and health benefits throughout their retirement is the way it was. More and more, as people are living longer, both the government and employers are decreasing retiree benefits and shifting more of the financial burden on us.

The challenges are real. Longevity, reduced benefits, inflation, market risk, and rising health care costs are converging to create what some have called “the perfect storm” for retirees.

 These four steps can help you steer clear of the storm.

  1. Prepare for the unexpected. You cannot prepare for every disaster that could strike, but you can have a cash fund for emergency expenses. Having the right insurance for liability, sickness, death, disability, and/or long term care also makes good sense for many people.

  2. Save as much as you can. A vital part of good financial planning is having cash flow margin to invest for future needs. If we spend it all now, there is no money for future needs. Predictably, a large majority of retirees polled regret not having saved more for retirement. Don’t just be a money conduit. Let some of it stick to you on the way through.

  3. Don’t settle for pitiful returns. People often play it too safe and sacrifice eating well later for sleeping well now. Inflation over time can ravage your retirement assets. At least give yourself the chance of getting the returns you need for a better retirement.  

  4. Don’t take too much risk. Chasing returns, buying overvalued stocks, and not being properly diversified, to name a few, are risky mistakes that can leave you sweeping up after everyone else has left the party. And sadly, too many of those burned over the last few years have too little time to make up the losses.

To do your best financially, planning is crucial. Good planning puts real numbers  to your goals. Early planning makes the goals easier to achieve.  It is no surprise that those most satisfied in retirement are those who planned early.

1 Source: Social Security Administration, The Office of Policy, Income of the Population 55 or older; February 2002 

Love God and Use Money

March 10th, 2008

This article was originally written in May 2005. 

How should we view money? God has made it clear we should not love it (1Tim 6:10), trust in it (1Tim 6:17), nor hoard it (Luke 12:18).

The reason is this: We can only serve one master.  Jesus said, “No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve God and mammon.”

So does that mean we should be unconcerned about our finances? Not at all. Jesus Christ said, If therefore ye have not been faithful in the unrighteous mammon, who will commit to your trust the true riches?” (Luke 16:11). Notice how powerful this verse is. How we manage material things, “unrighteous mammon”,  is so important, it affects our spiritual blessings, “the true riches”.

We are stewards of the  money that God has entrusted to us. He calls us  to faithfully manage it.

Instead of loving money and trying to “use” God, as many do, we should love God and use money—and use it wisely.    

Save Tax-Free Now

March 10th, 2008

This article, originally written in May 2005, is republished with minor editions. 

One of the greatest financial planning tools our benevolent representatives in Washington have ever granted us is the Roth IRA. (Half sarcasm, half sincerity)

The Roth IRA allows after-tax money to grow tax free. (Remember an IRA does not refer to the investment—it refers to the tax treatment. You can have all kinds of savings and investments inside your IRAs. Also remember, IRS eligibility requirements apply. You also must have earned income to contribute and higher income levels can limit your contributions.)

With a Roth, there are no Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) at age 70.5 as with traditional IRAs.

Also, consider the tremendous tax-free wealth building potential for your heirs by “stretching” the Roth.

Having a bucket of tax free money in retirement can also give you some control over your taxable income when you are drawing from your assets in retirement. This could make a significant difference in the amount you are taxed on social security  income.

Why wait until April of next year to make this year’s contribution? Invest early in January and get a 15.5 month tax-free advantage. If you do this every year, the compound growth on the tax savings can be significant.

Don’t Play it Too Safe

March 10th, 2008

This article, originally written in April 2005, is republished with minor editing.

Two brothers inherited $100,000 each. Larry put his money in an account that earned an average of 4% per year. When he retired 25 years later, he had $266,584. Unfortunately inflation had reduced his purchasing power such that he was not much further ahead 25 years later. 

His brother, John, put his money in an account that earned an average of 7% per year, with some fluctuation from year to year.  When John retired 25 years later, he had $542,743.    

John had earned $276,159 more than his brother simply by earning 7% per year versus 4%.  

This hypothetical story shows what a difference there is between 4% and 7% compounded annually over time. Taxes were not considered.  

With people living longer, retiring earlier, and fewer employer pension plans, growth on savings has become even more important than in the past. 

In order to avoid the risk of losing any money, many people put their savings into bank accounts that pay very little interest, with no potential of earning more.  Thus their money grows at a very slow rate. This is one of the biggest mistakes retirees make: under-estimating inflation risk. 

The bottom line is, most people cannot save enough to have a comfortable retirement, without a good rate of return on their savings. They need growth. They need growth that will outpace inflation to ensure their purchasing power is not eroded over time.  

What a difference a few extra percentage points of return can make. Larry was so concerned about losing a portion of his $100,000, he lost $276,159 over time by playing it too safe. In so doing,  he was the real loser.          

Is It Wrong to Desire to Be Rich?

March 10th, 2008

This article was originally written in April 2005.

God does address this subject in scripture. But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition.(1Timothy 6:9)

Notice, it is not necessarily wrong to be rich. It’s wrong to “will” (desire) to be rich.

So what is the proper attitude toward being rich?

We shouldn’t desire to be rich. If we are rich, we should not be “high-minded, nor trust in uncertain riches, but in the living God, who giveth us richly all things to enjoy.  (1Timothy 6:17)

Why then should we seek to get a good return on our money?  Here’s why.

Regardless of how much we’ve been given, God expects us to manage it well. (Read Matthew 25:14-30; Luke 16:11).

 The proverb below conveys the right attitude. …Give me neither poverty nor riches…Lest I be full, and deny thee, and say, Who is the LORD? or lest I be poor, and steal, and take the name of my God in vain. (Proverbs 30:8,9)